Market Updates

Columbus Weekly Market Analysis — Is it a Refi Party? (Oct 1, 2025)

Tom Lade

Tom Lade

— 7 min read
Columbus Weekly Market Analysis — Is it a Refi Party? (Oct 1, 2025)
  • TLDR
  • Rates ~6.3%; inventory highest since 2016 → leverage without price collapse.
  • I try to skip your appraisal (DU/LPA Value Acceptance/ACE) and kill PMI where eligible.
  • I run your MBS Highway blended-rate math → refi vs. HELOC/second with receipts.

If you’ve been waiting for a refi window in Central Ohio, this week’s data says “get your popcorn ready.” Rates bounced slightly but remain near ~11-month lows, inventory is the highest we’ve seen since 2016 and days on market have stretched just enough to give buyers leverage without knocking prices off their axis. Below is the Columbus-specific read, plus two advantages for refinance clients: (1) chasing appraisal waivers by dual-running DU & LP and **(2) using a true blended-rate analysis (via MBS Highway) so we choose refi vs. HELOC/second based on actual data.

Rate backdrop: the window that (finally) cracked open

Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey pegged the 30-year fixed at 6.30% for the week ending Sept 25, a 4-bp uptick after four weeks trending down. That still leaves us hovering near the lowest levels since last fall and has reignited both purchase and refinance application interest year-over-year. Freddie Mac+1

Why you should care: at 6.30% vs. the 6.75–7.50% mortgages many Columbus owners picked up in 2023–2024, a refi could certainly make sense. The old adage was always 1% lower makes sense... but it's more about your loan amount and the breakeven of costs. Let's run those numbers!

Columbus market pulse: more selection, firm prices, extra time

Inventory: Central Ohio active listings hit the highest level since 2016, giving buyers real choice again. Columbus REALTORS® report 3% more closed sales year over year in August and a meaningful inventory build heading into fall. columbusrealtors.com

Prices: The median sales price was $338,000 in August (+4.8% YoY)—prices are edging up, not rolling over. That matters for equity-driven refi strategies (cash-out for debt consolidation or renovations) and for PMI removal opportunities. columbusrealtors.com

Days on Market: DOM rose to 29 days (up from 22 a year ago), signaling that over-aggressive list prices and “make-me-move” fantasies are getting punished—while right-priced homes still move. For buyers, this is leverage. For would-be sellers planning a refi-then-reno-then-list strategy, it’s breathing room to do upgrades without getting steamrolled by a two-day market. thecolumbusteam.com

Local policy & macro signals to watch (they affect timing)

  • Rental registry proposal (Columbus): City Council is considering a registry for long-term rentals to improve safety/oversight. Landlords/investors should track potential fee/inspection requirements; it’s not law yet, but it’s moving through hearings. Compliance costs—if adopted—affect cap rate math and may influence sell/hold timelines. WOSU Public Media+1
  • “Zone In” zoning modernization: The city’s multi-year effort is expanding beyond the 2024 corridor rezones that unlocked large mixed-use capacity. Translation for homeowners/investors: more medium-term supply opportunity along transit corridors; keep an eye on permitting and small-scale infill where the new code reduces friction. City of Columbus+2City of Columbus+2
  • Intel timeline drift: Regional housing demand from Intel’s megaproject remains a long-run tailwind, but near-term milestones have stretched. Latest reporting suggests neither fab will go live before 2031, so plan absorption in phases—not a 2026 stampede. WOSU Public Media

My refi edge #1: chase no-appraisal when possible (DU + LPA)

Before anyone pays for an appraisal, I dual-run every conventional refi through both Fannie Mae’s Desktop Underwriter (DU) and Freddie Mac’s Loan Product Advisor (LPA). The goal is to secure value acceptance (Fannie’s term for what used to be “appraisal waivers”) or ACE (Freddie’s automated collateral evaluation). If the AUS engines accept the value and, the appraisal is not required—saving you time, money, and one giant uncertainty. Fannie Mae Selling Guide+2Fannie Mae+2

Real-world local win: We recently secured DU/LPA acceptance on a Columbus conventional refi, used the accepted value to remove PMI entirely, and closed with no appraisal fee—the combination turned a marginal “maybe” into a “yes.”

My refi edge #2: your blended rate is the truth, not your note rate

Homeowners with 2–4% first mortgages naturally resist touching that low rate. But if you’re carrying 20–30% APR on cards (or higher-rate autos/personal loans), your household’s effective borrowing cost is much higher than your first-mortgage rate. So I run a Blended Rate analysis using MBS Highway’s calculator: we weight each balance by its interest rate to get your true effective rate, then compare it to the proposed refi (or to a HELOC/second if that wins). It’s not opinion—it’s arithmetic. support.mbshighway.com+2support.mbshighway.com+2

What typically wins in Columbus right now:

  • Rate-term refi for 2023–2024 vintages at ≥6.75–7.50%, especially if a waiver lets us use an accepted value to cut PMI simultaneously. Freddie Mac
  • Cash-out refi when the blended rate drops meaningfully and we replace expensive credit cards with single-digit mortgage debt and implement guardrails so the credit cards don’t creep back.
  • HELOC/second (e.g., fixed HE-loan) when the refi can’t beat the blended rate; we surgically attack the bad debt and keep the cheap first intact.

Columbus-style scenarios (how I’d run them this week)

Scenario A — Refi + PMI removal, no appraisal

  • Current: 7.25% 30-yr with PMI.
  • Play: I run DU & LP. If we receive value acceptance, we proceed without an appraisal, use the accepted value to clear the MI threshold, and refi into the mid-6s. Result: lower payment + no appraisal fee, and we shaved PMI off. Fannie Mae Selling Guide+1

Scenario B — Cash-out vs. HELOC (the blended-rate duel)

  • Current stack: $260k at 3.25% first + $32k cards @ 22% + $18k auto @ 8%.
  • Play: MBS Highway Blended Rate shows the household’s true cost. If a new first at ~6.3% plus payoff of all non-mortgage debt lowers both effective rate and monthly outflow, refi wins. If not, we keep the 3.25% first and add a HELOC/HELOAN to remove only the expensive balances. support.mbshighway.com

Scenario C — Reno-then-list with timing

  • Current: $240k balance, considering $40k in upgrades.
  • Play: Leverage stable Columbus prices ($338k median, +4.8% YoY) and slightly longer DOM to execute upgrades without fire-drill timelines. Decide between cash-out vs. HE-loan based on ROI and exit plan; list into improved inventory conditions with surgical pricing and (if needed) buydown credits to hold your net. columbusrealtors.com+1

Timing & lock strategy (how I protect you)

  1. 5-minute pre-check: we pull your note data, soft-pull credit (no score hit), and a quick value read.
  2. Dual-run DU & LP for value acceptance before spending on an appraisal. If no offer, we pre-flight value and decide whether an appraisal is worth it. Fannie Mae Selling Guide+1
  3. Blended-rate report (MBS Highway): side-by-side rate-term vs. cash-out vs. HELOC/second showing payment, effective rate, cash-to-close, and breakeven. support.mbshighway.com
  4. Smart lock: if numbers work today, lock; where allowed, select a float-down so you’re protected either way. (Freddie Mac PMMS updates on Thursdays, which is when we reassess.) Freddie Mac
  5. Close & deploy: we coordinate immediate debt payoffs or contractor schedules so the savings/ROI show up day one.

Bottom line (this week in one sentence)

Columbus is giving us selection (inventory), stability (prices), and time (DOM) while rates hover around 6.30%— that means that values may start to fall a bit. With the appraisal waiver, we don't have to chance a low appraisal. With doing a full analysis of your debts, I can give you the data on what your best option is overall. I don't want to just be your mortgage guy... I want to be your debt manager. columbusrealtors.com+2thecolumbusteam.com+2

FAQ — Columbus Refi This Week

Can I skip the appraisal on a refinance?

Sometimes. On every conventional refi I dual-run Fannie Mae DU and Freddie Mac LPA to try for an appraisal alternative (Value Acceptance in DU; ACE in LPA). If the AUS accepts the value and risk fits, no appraisal is required—saving time and the fee. Eligibility is engine-driven.

Can a waiver help me remove PMI?

Yes—when the accepted value puts your LTV at or below the MI cutoff, I can often remove PMI without ordering a new appraisal. This was the exact win I had on a recent Columbus refinance.

I have a 3% first. Why would I touch it?

Because your household cost isn’t your note rate—it’s your blended rate (mortgage + cards + auto + personal loans). I run your numbers through MBS Highway’s Blended Rate to compare refi vs. HELOC/second with real math. If the refi doesn’t win, we don’t do it.

Refi vs. HELOC—how do you decide?

If a single new first mortgage lowers the effective rate and monthly outflow (and enforces payoff discipline), refi wins. If keeping the low first and adding a HELOC / fixed-second saves more, we go that route.

What’s the lock strategy right now?

We lock when the math already works and use a float-down option when available. Freddie Mac PMMS prints Thursdays—we re-check then and adjust if there’s a meaningful move.

Sources

  • Rates and guidelines change. Appraisal alternatives and PMI removal are AUS-eligibility dependent.
  • NMLS 962607/ equal housing

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